Ecofys, Climate Analytics, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, the NewClimate Institute, the Oeko-Institute and the Wuppertal Institute have published a new report on effort sharing in the new climate agreement to be adopted at the Paris Conference in December 2015 and to be applied starting in 2020.
Countries’ mitigation contributions are one central element in the negotiations. By the end of October 2015, 128 Parties had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs), reflecting 155 countries, and covering around 87% of global emissions and 88% of global population.
Ever since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed upon, the level of ambition as well as the fair balance between parties has been the linchpin of negotiations. How can negotiations ensure that aggregate action by parties suffices to achieve the jointly agreed goal to limit warming below 2°C – or even 1.5°C as called for by the most vulnerable countries, in light of current science? How can a fair and equitable distribution of effort be enshrined in the agreement? How to move forward action on mitigation and adaption, and reconcile this with the pursuit of countries’ development aspirations and needs?
While the process of INDC submissions showed that most countries are to some extent willing to contribute to climate change mitigation, it was not possible yet to include a centralised assessment of country contributions. The level of ambition of contributions as well as the establishment of an assessment and review process will remain to be in the center of negotiations at the Paris Conference.
Against this background, the new report offers deliberations on what a “fair share” of mitigation in 2025 and 2030 could be. It shows, for a selection of ten countries – Brazil, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, South Africa, and the United States of America (USA) – , how their respective INDCs perform if related to different fair share approaches and effort sharing models. These assessments also take into account national mitigation potential and costs and the wider context of socio-economic development of the countries. Finally, current policies and politics of each country are included in the assessments.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on November 27, 2015
This week’s roundup covers the publication of the second part of the new assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, new global installation figures and forecasts for solar PV, publication of last year’s verified emissions in the EU emission trading system, and Germany’s latest energy policy decisions. (more…)
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on April 4, 2014
This week’s roundup covers a sobering analysis of what impacts the new German government’s energy policy can be expected to have, an analysis of whether the major economies will meet their 2020 pledges, the US tabling its vision for the 2015 climate agreement, an analysis of the Boxer-Sanders climate bill, a proposal for breaking the deadlock on a 2030 EU renewables target, Denmark’s cross-party consensus to be a climate frontrunner, India switching water pumps from diesel to solar, a vision of the Western Balkans as new Desertec, the results of the first year of free public transport in Talinn, and another major sign of the collapse of the Clean Development Mechanism.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on February 14, 2014
This week’s roundup features the European Commission’s proposals for post-2020 climate and energy policy, the new German government’s plans to overhaul the renewable energy law, studies on the benefits of renewables and efficiency in Europe and Germany, solar installation figures from China, India and Japan, ambitious solar plans in Kenya, a report saying that Obama’s executive authority on climate policy goes quite far, an HBSC report saying that ambitious climate policy could halve the value of coal companies’ assets, a study saying that climate change could increase the frequency of devastating El Niños, and more.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on January 24, 2014
This week’s roundup features Japan’s decision to drastically downgrade its emission target for 2020, the EU’s lack of climate ambition, a study claiming that there has in fact not been a “warming pause” in the last decade, KfW saying that fracking offers no competitive advantage to the US, Japan being set to become the world’s largest solar market, indications that the drop in German wholesale power prices is finally getting passed on to retail customers, a study concluding that renewables will be competitive with all fossil fuels in Germany by 2030, figures showing that the German renewables surcharge accounts for only a tiny fraction of households’ overall energy cost increase over the last decade, and more.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on November 17, 2013
This week’s roundup includes allegations that the EU’s DG Energy removed figures from a report that showed that renewables get only a fraction of the subsidies nuclear and fossil fuels are getting in the EU, another report showing the same picture for the global level, Chile doubling its renewable electricity target, solar continuing strong in Japan, reports of falling wind and solar costs, Germany blowing up an already done EU deal on car emission standards, Merkel cautiously coming out in favour of doing something about the EU ETS crisis, the announcement of Germany’s renewables surcharge for 2014, and more.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on October 20, 2013
This week’s roundup features the likely impacts of the Australian election for climate policy, Chinese efforts to reduce air pollution and their climate co-benefits, solar scale-up accelerating in the US and Japan, development banks putting record volumes into clean energy, a proposal to use the UNFCCC to promote renewables and efficiency, a discussion of the economic and political consequences of scaling up renewables, the interplay of efficiency policies and the EU ETS, contentious climate policy claims by Naomi Klein, arguments that the IPCC is being to conservative, the world wasting 1/3 of its food production while a billion people go hungry, and incidentally causing 3.3 billion tonnes of emissions per year, and more.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on September 15, 2013
This week’s roundup features projections of peaking Chinese emissions, the non-availability of an Archimedian lever to tackle climate change, governments deserving a better reputation for successfully promoting innovation, an argument that carbon revenues may be more important than the carbon price as such, new figures on falling renewables’ technology costs, Japan’s METI aiming to ramp up clean energy spending, renewables growing in the US, India and the UK, a Dutch energy agreement in the making, enormous disparities in European energy efficiency policies, governments being accused of failing to give clear directions for green investments, predictions of a lignite boom in Germany, a proposal to name hurricanes after US members of Congress who reject climate science, and more.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on September 1, 2013
This week’s roundup features Al Gore arguing that we are approaching a climate policy tipping point, Stanford scholar Tony Seba predicting that solar will make fossil fuels and nuclear obsolete by 2030, the US’s top energy regulator being similarly bullish, various studies showing that renewables are increasingly cost-competitive, 100% of new energy installations in Australia being wind or solar, solar getting off to a rocket start in Japan, China investing more per GDP into clean energy than the UK, the solar manufacturing glut apparently being over thanks to surging demand from Asia, more and more countries adopting policies to promote renewables, France announcing a climate-energy levy, an article connecting Egypt’s crisis to its running out of oil, food and money, a hilarious commercial for public transport, and more.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on August 25, 2013
This week’s roundup features solar PV booming in Japan, renewables putting an end to the world as we know it, emission trading now being an object for archaeologists, Russia blocking a large chunk of the Bonn climate talks, China not going for absolutes but for HFCs, Germany once again making an embarrassment of itself in the EU, and the mathematics of immigration.
Posted by Wolfgang Obergassel on June 9, 2013